This is how I see it actually playing out. Organized labor in Wisconsin is going to have a huge impact on this election. I think they'll win/steal the election for Obama, thereby giving him another four years. Same scenario in Ohio. I don't see Romney surging enough to pull Pennsylvania either, despite it being coal country. Nevada and Iowa aren't game changers, but I think the SEIU will help Obama win in Nevada and Iowa's increasing liberalism will help tip the scales in the president's favor. Also, the tanking stock market seems to indicate an Obama reelection.
However, despite all of this. I don't see the president pulling over 50% of the vote. In fact, there's a chance that we have a repeat of the 2000 election, where Romney could win the popular vote - as all the polls currently point to - but lose the electoral college. Either way, I'm calling the election for Obama.
But...
There's still a chance that Romney could pull this one off. Wisconsin is crucial. If people will wake up and smell the fermenting economy, Romney could win this. He can win without Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada. I don't see Nevada swinging into Romney's territory. If the people were stupid enough to elect Harry Reid again, I doubt they'll smarten up and elect Romney. Wisconsin, however, has showed clear promise. The recall election of Governor Scott Walker proved that the union powers can be fought. So if Wisconsin goes to Romney, I see Ohio going to him as well. Iowa is kind of a 50/50 shot. I also find it intriguing that the polls are heavily skewed towards Democrats. So, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Obama doesn't pull the numbers the polls suggest he will. I'm hopeful that this is the scenario that plays out on election night, but if it does, just prepare yourself to party like it's 2000. You know Ohio and Wisconsin will be teeming with DNC lawyers if Romney pulls off a victory in both states.
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